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Retail predictions for 2025

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As we advance into 2025 (how is it March already?!), taking the time to reflect on 2024 can be helpful to reset and plan strategic decisions that will drive success in the coming year. Our connections with leading retailers and industry experts have provided valuable insights about what lies ahead. Read on for the highlights, trends, and what’s shaping our roadmap.

Our predictions for the year ahead

After 4 years of interest rate rises, and increasing international competition, the retail landscape continues to rapidly evolve. Consumers are tightening their spending but are still splurging during peak sales events. Meanwhile, retailers are exploring alternative fulfilment strategies to meet customer demands for fast and reliable delivery. These trends are highlighted in our latest Commerce Delivery Report, which provides a view into the current state and future direction of retail in Australia.

As economic uncertainty continues, retailers must focus on forecasting, strategy, and a deep understanding of consumer behaviour. To stay competitive, retailers should optimise every stage of the customer journey. Here are some of the key trends shaping the retail landscape in 2025:

  • Delivery matters – Providing fast, transparent, and flexible delivery options will continue to be critical for customer loyalty.
  • Personalisation boosts retention – Data-driven, post-purchase experiences will help retailers keep customers engaged.
  • Sustainability is expected – “With sustainability playing a role in the purchase decision for over 50% of shoppers*, there's never been a more important time for retailers to consider sustainable practices.”
  • Local vs. global – With the rise of international giants like Shein and Temu, it’s important for local retailers to double down on seamless experiences and unique value propositions.
  • Predictive analytics and AI – Leverage advanced technology to anticipate demand, optimise shipping routes, and reduce costs.

What we learnt from 2024

Shifting consumer spending habits

Based on our platform data, it seems that Australian shoppers are prioritising value-driven purchases, saving up to purchase big ticket items during sale events. Average order values (AOV) are declining during the year, down from $128 in 2022 to $98 in 2024, however the AOV increased considerably during Cyber Weekend, rising 33% above the 2024 average to $130 as Aussies spent on big-ticket items like TVs, trampolines and sneakers. 

Delivery performance is improving

There’s a clear trend that shows delivery performance is improving every year, with only 7.7% of orders delayed in 2024. This is a huge decrease vs 2021 where this was closer to 1 in 4 orders. However, there’s a disconnect in terms of promises made, as we are seeing that the average delivery estimate is 5.6 days, far higher than the 2.2 days actual delivery time we’re seeing on our platform. This offers a real opportunity for retailers to boost customer confidence by setting more accurate expectations at checkout. 

Want to see more trends and insights from our 2024 platform data? Get your free copy of our Commerce Delivery Report here.

In focus: Click and collect and local fulfilment

Shoppers are increasingly opting for flexible and convenient delivery options, with express delivery up 9% and on-demand surging 490%. As a result, retailers are turning to local fulfilment options to meet customers expectations and demand for not only speed, but reliability. Click-and-collect orders have also grown 11%, but as delivery options become faster and more reliable, we will likely see its share decline.

“Our customers’ expectations continue to evolve, but reliability remains a consistent non-negotiable” Carina Micheal, Group Head of Technology and Digital, APG & Co.

Our final thoughts

As Rob comments in the report, “Retailers that invest in reliable delivery, proactive communication, and post-purchase engagement will build stronger, more resilient customer relationships.”

At Shippit, we understand the challenges facing retailers today. As consumer expectations evolve and competition intensifies, those who adapt will thrive. Stay tuned for more expanded partnerships, delivery services and powerful features from Shippit in 2025, as we continue to bring you the most innovative shipping solutions to help you adapt and optimise your shipping strategy to stay ahead.

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Want to see more trends and insights from our 2024 platform data? Get your free copy of our Commerce Delivery Report here.

*Source: IT Sloane Review, Blackrock Capita; ABS, Monash, ipsos

LAST UPDATED
March 10, 2025
CATEGORY
Thought Leadership

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